Like many new products Microsoft introduces, there is a lot of talk about when companies will migrate to Microsoft SharePoint Server 2010. Some companies wait until Service Pack (SP) 1 is released, others jump on the platform in Beta and then migrate through each release as the next release becomes available, and then you have the companies that choose to be late to the party. This offering will be no different that any other software Microsoft has released in the past.
Two factors have entered the scene with the introduction that were not present in other versions of SharePoint:
- The deepest recession since the "Great Depression" in the 1930s
- Requirement for 64-bit SharePoint
The economy in the United States has hit the bottom and is showing signs of recovery, but corporate investment for new projects continue to be severely scrutinized and many think it will take until Spring or Summer of 2010 before we see any movement in the pent-up demand that has held back upgrades and other similar initiatives. If Microsoft plans to roll-out SharePoint 2010, I don't think the economy will impact the adoption, if companies want to migrate it, it might actually help.
Now that IT management knows that SharePoint 2010 will be available, they can plan the expenses in their budget and if the global economy continues to improve then spending the money to upgrade will not be a problem. Also a sizable set of the companies that could go to the next version immediately could do so based on their Microsoft Enterprise Agreement, a contract which allows companies to buy the software they need for the company over a three-year period, that allows for access and authorization to upgrade to the latest version upon release. This is not going to cover every enterprise, but will hit a majority with over five thousand employees in their organization.
The next requirement enterprises need to account for is 64-bit SharePoint. Many have said that this will be the biggest reason why companies won't go to the product, I think that is not a major concern. My reasoning is this, large companies generally outsource or had virtual server farms (or both) and moving to a 64-bit environment so spinning up a new 64-bit farm is not a major expense, when they can retire the same application on another virtual server farm. Most companies will on incur time and re-allocation of licenses of 32-bit software to 64-bit. There are special cases across the board because of contracts, but those are very special cases. For mid- and small-business, this expense could be an issue, but the smaller the company I am convinced that with this financial crisis, they would not move to SharePoint 2010, unless they are an Independent Software Vendor (ISV) or consulting firm.
So when will companies move? Some already have started, others are thinking about when they can move before the Release Candidate (RC) is out, but I see the wave starting in August/September, if the product maintains its mid-year release and increase throughout 2010. I know I am advising to start to plan for upgrading to SharePoint 2010 prior to it's release and for some, recommend its adoption before RC for others. I can see others holding off until 2012, just because of the lack of buy-in for the entire Microsoft stack, but that happens in all types of product lines.
The next item up for discussion will be what should you do to plan for migration and how to help your users choose when to upgrade their sites.